Core Conviction
Our highest-conviction long-term positions
7 active positions, 4 closed since Oct 2019.
Positions
Average open return ••• across 7 positions. 4 closed: 3 wins, 1 loss. Scores as of Oct 2, 2026.
| Ticker | Opened | Entry | Now | Since pick | Target | Upside | LikeFolio Score | Main Street | Wall Street | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOPShopify | Dec 2019 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 78 | 75 | 66 | Buy |
| WMTWalmart | Mar 2020 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 61 | 53 | 49 | Buy |
| COSTCostco | Feb 2021 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 65 | 56 | 43 | Buy |
| SPOTSpotify | Oct 2023 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 57 | 50 | 42 | Buy |
| AAPLApple | Feb 2025 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 87 | 91 | 90 | Buy |
| HIMSHims & Hers Health | Mar 2025 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 79 | 71 | 36 | Buy |
| LULULululemon | Dec 2025 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | 69 | 54 | 9 | Buy |
Closed
| Ticker | Opened | Closed | Entry | Exit | Realised | Outcome | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTDBuy | Oct 2019 | Dec 2025 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Closed | |
| HOODBuy | Jan 2022 | Sep 2026 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Target hit | |
| RCLBuy | Mar 2023 | May 2026 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Closed | Locking in a near 5x gain today and taking pandemic-fear risk off the table. |
| ODDBuy | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Stopped out |
The thesis
Our Core Conviction portfolio targets companies where LikeFolio's consumer sentiment data reveals sustained positive momentum that Wall Street hasn't fully recognized. AAPL LikeFolio Score 87, COST LikeFolio Score 65, and WMT LikeFolio Score 61 represent fortress brands with consistently strong purchase intent signals, while LULU LikeFolio Score 69 shows remarkable brand loyalty metrics among younger demographics that traditional analysts often miss. These aren't momentum plays—they're businesses where our Main Street data indicates durable competitive advantages that should compound over 12-24 months.
The portfolio's growth components—HIMS LikeFolio Score 79, HOOD, SHOP LikeFolio Score 78, and SPOT LikeFolio Score 57—are benefiting from behavioral shifts we're tracking in real-time consumer conversations. HIMS is capturing massive mindshare in telehealth with engagement rates that dwarf traditional healthcare mentions, while HOOD continues to dominate financial services discussions among retail investors despite regulatory noise. SHOP's merchant ecosystem shows resilient growth in our small business sentiment tracking, and SPOT maintains exceptional brand affinity in streaming despite increased competition.
Recovery plays RCL and ODD round out the conviction set, supported by leading indicators in our travel and retail datasets. Royal Caribbean's booking intent signals have consistently outpaced industry peers throughout the travel recovery cycle, while Oddity's direct-to-consumer beauty brands are generating purchase consideration metrics that rival established giants. These positions reflect our belief that consumer behavior data provides a 3-6 month edge in identifying sustainable business momentum before it shows up in quarterly earnings.
Buy SHOP
Price and score chart
This portfolio has 7 open positions.
Entries, targets and stops are part of Model Portfolios and Pro.
Get Model Portfolios. $299 first year