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Core Conviction

Our highest-conviction long-term positions

7 active positions, 4 closed since Oct 2019.

Andy Swan Landon Swan
Andy Swan & Landon Swan
LikeFolio Intelligence
Last trade Sep 8, 2026

Positions

Average open return ••• across 7 positions. 4 closed: 3 wins, 1 loss. Scores as of Oct 2, 2026.

TickerOpenedEntryNowSince pickTargetUpsideLikeFolio ScoreMain StreetWall StreetCall
SHOPShopifyDec 2019•••••••••••••••787566Buy
WMTWalmartMar 2020•••••••••••••••615349Buy
COSTCostcoFeb 2021•••••••••••••••655643Buy
SPOTSpotifyOct 2023•••••••••••••••575042Buy
AAPLAppleFeb 2025•••••••••••••••879190Buy
HIMSHims & Hers HealthMar 2025•••••••••••••••797136Buy
LULULululemonDec 2025•••••••••••••••69549Buy

Closed

TickerOpenedClosedEntryExitRealisedOutcomeNote
TTDBuyOct 2019Dec 2025•••••••••Closed
HOODBuyJan 2022Sep 2026•••••••••Target hit
RCLBuyMar 2023May 2026•••••••••ClosedLocking in a near 5x gain today and taking pandemic-fear risk off the table.
ODDBuyMar 2026Jun 2026•••••••••Stopped out

The thesis

Our Core Conviction portfolio targets companies where LikeFolio's consumer sentiment data reveals sustained positive momentum that Wall Street hasn't fully recognized. AAPL LikeFolio Score 87, COST LikeFolio Score 65, and WMT LikeFolio Score 61 represent fortress brands with consistently strong purchase intent signals, while LULU LikeFolio Score 69 shows remarkable brand loyalty metrics among younger demographics that traditional analysts often miss. These aren't momentum plays—they're businesses where our Main Street data indicates durable competitive advantages that should compound over 12-24 months.

The portfolio's growth components—HIMS LikeFolio Score 79, HOOD, SHOP LikeFolio Score 78, and SPOT LikeFolio Score 57—are benefiting from behavioral shifts we're tracking in real-time consumer conversations. HIMS is capturing massive mindshare in telehealth with engagement rates that dwarf traditional healthcare mentions, while HOOD continues to dominate financial services discussions among retail investors despite regulatory noise. SHOP's merchant ecosystem shows resilient growth in our small business sentiment tracking, and SPOT maintains exceptional brand affinity in streaming despite increased competition.

Recovery plays RCL and ODD round out the conviction set, supported by leading indicators in our travel and retail datasets. Royal Caribbean's booking intent signals have consistently outpaced industry peers throughout the travel recovery cycle, while Oddity's direct-to-consumer beauty brands are generating purchase consideration metrics that rival established giants. These positions reflect our belief that consumer behavior data provides a 3-6 month edge in identifying sustainable business momentum before it shows up in quarterly earnings.

Buy SHOP

Entered ••• on Dec 26, 2019. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score78
Main Street75
Wall Street66
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026

This portfolio has 7 open positions.

Entries, targets and stops are part of Model Portfolios and Pro.

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Buy WMT

Entered ••• on Mar 29, 2020. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score61
Main Street53
Wall Street49
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026

Buy COST

Entered ••• on Feb 4, 2021. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score65
Main Street56
Wall Street43
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026

Buy SPOT

Entered ••• on Oct 3, 2023. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score57
Main Street50
Wall Street42
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026

Buy AAPL

Entered ••• on Feb 3, 2025. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score87
Main Street91
Wall Street90
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026

Buy HIMS

Entered ••• on Mar 25, 2025. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score79
Main Street71
Wall Street36
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026

Buy LULU

Entered ••• on Dec 4, 2025. Now •••, ••• since pick.
Target •••Stop •••
LikeFolio Score69
Main Street54
Wall Street9
Price and score chart
Scores as of Oct 2, 2026
Andy Swan Landon Swan
Andy Swan & Landon Swan
LikeFolio Intelligence
SHOPBuy
••• since pick
WMTBuy
••• since pick
COSTBuy
••• since pick
SPOTBuy
••• since pick
AAPLBuy
••• since pick
HIMSBuy
••• since pick
LULUBuy
••• since pick
TTDBuy
Closed •••
HOODBuy
Closed •••
RCLBuy
Closed •••
ODDBuy
Closed •••