Closed Jun 29, 2026
Middle Class Squeeze: Short Targets
In a K-shaped economy where middle-income spending is visibly cracking, these stocks represent the gap between Wall Street's narrative and Main Street's reality.
No open positions. 3 closed since May 2026.
Last trade Jun 30, 2026
Positions
No open positions. 3 closed: 1 win, 1 loss, 1 flat.
Closed
| Ticker | Opened | Closed | Entry | Exit | Realised | Outcome | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGTShort | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Stopped out | |
| SBUXShort | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Closed | Taking a small win on signs of consumer spend ramping in June |
| BUDShort | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | ••• | ••• | ••• | Closed |
“Middle-income consumers are making difficult choices when it comes to discretionary spending even as the top-line economy looks fine, and these stocks are some of the most direct bets on that squeezed middle holding up. Our consumer demand data shows that pressure is real and getting worse, not stabilizing.”
Andy Swan, thesis & conviction
The thesis
Headline GDP looks healthy. Unemployment is low. The S&P 500 keeps printing new highs. But underneath the surface, the consumer economy has fractured into distinct tiers — and the middle class is the one getting crushed. Bank of America's internal transaction data shows spending growth for higher-income Americans remained relatively stable between January 2025 and January 2026. But spending growth slowed measurably for lower- and middle-income households during the same period.
The evidence
TGT LikeFolio Score QoQ-2 pts
BUD North America Volume Q1 2026-3.6%
SBUX Divergence Gap (MS vs. WS)-31 pts
Consumers Planning to Cut Eating & Drinking Out 202666%
Andy Swan & Landon Swan
LikeFolio Intelligence
“Regular Joes and Janes are trading down, seeking value, and prioritizing convenience — and LikeFolio sees it in the data before Wall Street sees it in the numbers. Middle-class brands are facing a middle-class squeeze while their stocks have been on a hot streak. We're positioning for a pullback.”